WEEK NINE RECAP

• There are five stages of grief people experience when given traumatic news or experiencing a loss.  The time spent and intensity at each stage varies, and the stages do not necessarily occur in the same order. Oklahoma State has officially entered the five stages.  Any hope of turning the season around was dashed after the West Virginia debacle.  The five stages of grief are as follows:

1. Denial
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2. Anger
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3. Bargaining
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4. Depression
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5. Acceptance
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WEEK NINE RESULTS

• WEEK NINE WINNER: Ken Senour.  Ken was one of 17 people to go 6-0!  17!  His 137 points were two points better than anyone else.
•  The group had a fantastic week.  61.5% overall and 60.5% on locks.
• The group majority had a record of 12-3. Solid.
• Steve Stephenson still leads the lock race at 7-1-1.  14 people are only half a game back.
• The best bracket luck:  Russell Kent.  He won with 40 points.
• The worst bracket luck:  Brian Marshall.  He lost with 107 points.

WEEK EIGHT RECAP

Short and sweet this week due to time constraints.  It was a bad week for the state schools.

• Tulsa lost, per usual….but they actually had a chance to win this one.
• With all the unforced errors, OU players and coaches have to be kicking themselves.  Everyone, that is, except Michael Hunnicutt.
• OSU’s offense continues its downward spiral, solidifying the Mike Yurcich hire as Mike Gundy’s worst decision as a head coach.  The hire will slide down to the second worst decision if Yurcich is kept on for another year.

WEEK EIGHT RESULTS

• WEEK EIGHT WINNER: Jeff Parks.  Jeff was one of 8 people to go 6-0.  His point total, 138, was almost an all-time record.  It was his second win of the year.
•  The group did very well this week.  54% overall and 56% on locks.
• More picks (51% to be exact) were made for underdogs this week than favorites.  That is incredibly rare.  Before week eight, underdogs were only receiving 34% of the picks.
• 79 points separate 1st place from 10th place.  That is the same point differential between 10th and 77th.

WEEK SEVEN RECAP

•  Assuming two losses would eliminate a team from consideration for the College Football Playoff, the Big 12 still has five teams that have a mathematical shot at making it. Four of the five play each other this coming weekend.  Oklahoma hosts Kansas State.  Oklahoma State travels to TCU.  The loser of those matchups will be eliminated.  Assuming the favorites win, there would be three teams left for consideration: TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  Baylor is the only team that has control of its own destiny.  Win out, and they are in for sure.  TCU and Oklahoma need to win out, but also need help from around the country.  If the Big 12 winner has less than two losses, they will have a good shot at getting in.  However, there are several scenarios that could keep them out.

How the Big 12 Gets In:

Big Ten Perception:  Unless one or more of the other Big Five conferences produces a two loss champion, the Big Ten will likely be watching the playoff on TV.  That opens up a spot for every other conference, including the Big 12.

Pac 12 Attrition:  There are no undefeated teams left in the Pac 12.  It is possible that the conference champion will have two losses.

Florida State:  Florida State is the only team that has a shot at making the playoff from the ACC.  The only other teams with less than two losses are Georgia Tech and Duke.  There is no way they survive the rest of the season unscathed.  An undefeated FSU would make the playoff for sure.  A one loss FSU could be left out.  A defeat could come this weekend against Notre Dame or somewhere down the road if when Jameis Winston is suspended.

How the Big 12 Gets Left Out:

Notre Dame:  If they go undefeated, they’ll steal one of the four spots.  Even a one loss Irish could get in, especially if the one loss is a close defeat to FSU.  The Big 12 needs ND to lose a couple.

SEC West:  The strength of the SEC West is undeniable.  The SEC champion is guaranteed a spot in the playoff.  If two SEC West teams survive conference play with less than two losses, the conference could easily get two teams in the playoff.

No Conference Championship:  The lack of a Big 12 Championship game could hurt the conference.  The Big 12 needs a clear-cut winner to give itself the best shot at making the playoff.  The scenario exists where TCU, OU and Baylor could tie for the conference championship with one loss.  A tie only muddies the waters.  How would the committee choose which team would represent the Big 12, especially since they claim the playoff teams will be chosen based on the eye-test, not necessarily whether or not a team won the conference championship?  In that scenario, you would think strength of schedule would eliminate Baylor.  That would leave OU and TCU.  OU’s strength of schedule is slightly better than TCU’s, but the Horned Frogs won head-to-head.

WEEK SEVEN RESULTS

• WEEK SEVEN WINNER: Charles Spierto.  Charles was the only person to go 6-0.  He climbed all the way up to 200th place.  Yes, 200th place.  He didn’t get off to the best start.
•  Another bad week: 42.7%.  The group is due for a rebound.
•  The lock winning percentage was even worse: 32.7%.
•  Nobody has a perfect lock record anymore.  Debbie Brandt and Robert Spierto lead the way at 6-1.
• 31 people have a lock record of 1-6 or worse!
• 7 people have at least 25 wins.  Thru seven weeks last season, 28 people had at least 25 wins.
• Double digit favorites had another bad week.  They went 0-5-1, ATS.
• Two weeks ago, Candice Murphy was in 99th place.  She is now in 5th place.

WEEK SIX RECAP

•  The upheaval in the Top 25 last weekend was of historic proportions. Depending on where your allegiance lies, the results were either harrowing or exhilarating.  It seemed fitting to pay homage to the events of the day by bringing back the “fan reaction”.

• It wasn’t just the fans that were shocked by the results of last weekend. A Nebraska lineman was equally stunned when seeing the Top 25 scores scroll across the jumbo-tron.

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WEEK SIX RESULTS

•  WEEK SIX WINNER: Russell Kent.  He is my British import coworker.  Naturally, he fancies being obnoxious and overly confident.  This time, he can actually back it up.  He went 5-1 and scored 110 points, one point better than Jason Brown. Splendid.
•  It was easily the worst week of the year: 39.2%%.
•  The lock winning percentage was a pathetic 26.5%
•  Home underdogs have now covered 63% of the games.
•  Favorites last week went 4-10-1. Double digit favorites were 1-3-1.
•  The OU game tied for the most popular pick of the year…and it killed the group. They were picked 174 to 16.  89 people locked the Sooners.  Only three people locked TCU.
•  One point separates 1^st place from 3^rd . 43 points separate 3^rd from 4^th.
•  Debbie Brandt is the only person with a 6-0 lock record. 10 people are a game back at 5-1.
•  10 people are 0-6.
•  At this point last year, five people were 6-0 and 41 people were either 5-0-1 or 5-1.

Going 6-0 is more elusive for some than others.  For me, it’s Bigfoot.  This is the ninth year of the PP6, and I still haven’t found it.  0 for 114.  Embarrassing, I know.  I use myself as an example to demonstrate how difficult it can be to go 6-0.  Well, that and the hope that it serves as a positive jinx.  Fingers-crossed.  Just how difficult is it to go 6-0?  Harder than it seems.  Vegas will pay you 40:1 if you go 6-0.  The true odds are worse, of course.  That is why parlays are considered sucker bets and Vegas is Vegas.  The house edge is huge.  Still, odds say I should’ve accomplished the feat years ago.  What odds don’t consider is my uncanny ability at picking a loser.

I compiled the historic stats for the odds of going 6-0 in the PP6.  Since I was already at it, I went ahead and calculated the odds of scoring at least 100 points and 80 points.  A 4-2 record (80 points or more) should be the goal every week.   That would give you a winning percentage of 66.7%, which is almost impossible to sustain over the course of a season.  It has never happened in the history of the PP6.  Will Corbyn  and John Mellish have come the closest.  They both had winning percentages above 65% in 2011.