Month: September 2021

WEEK FOUR RESULTS

John Stovall 2021 Season

  • WEEK FOUR WINNER:  Kris Kubin.  Kris’ 132 points is the highest score we’ve seen this year, and it moved him from 234th place to 52nd. Dale Sheller, Patrick Nagle and Max Briese also went 6-0, but they fell short of Kris’ mark.
  • The group and lock winning percentages were below average:  49.7% and 44.4%, respectively.
  • It’s now been four straight weeks that the lock winning percentage was worse than the overall.
  • For the third time in four weeks, the 0-6’s outpaced the 6-0’s. This time it was by a margin of 5 to 4.
  • 30 people scored 100+ points, bringing the total for the year to 101.
  • John Mellish is leading the way in what’s been a pretty slow start to the year. Through four weeks, 300 points is good enough for 49th place. In 2019, you would only be in 87th place.
  • The gap between 1st place and 5th place (53 points) is the same as the gap between 10th place and 74th place.
  • I hate to bring this up. Genuinely. But, the person with the worst overall record is yours truly. Not only do I have to live with a record of 5-18-1, I also have to live in a house with boys that love reminding me of how terrible I’m doing. If I would’ve just ignored myself completely, I’d be in 2nd place.
  • We now only have nine people with a perfect lock record. Four people are only half a game back at 3-0-1.
  • Dusty Weatherly is the highest ranked participant (29th place) with a 4-0 lock record. Jason Gorsuch is the lowest ranked participant (251st).
  • 22 people have an 0-4 lock record.
  • Two of the 15 games had maximum bonus point opportunities. Notre Dame exploded in the 4th quarter to race away from Wisconsin, and Oregon State easily handled a schizophrenic USC team.
  • Arkansas was the most popular pick of the week. Rarely is the most popular pick an underdog. They continued their winning ways by upsetting A&M.
  • Michigan State was the 2nd most popular pick and easily the most popular lock. Actually, they are the most popular lock we’ve had this year. They received twice as much lock interest as the next closest team (Kansas State). They won the game but failed to cover.
  • It was a missed opportunity with Oregon State this week. Only 14 people picked them, and nobody locked them. They would’ve rewarded you with maximum bonus points.
  • The group majority picked the underdog in 7 of the 15 games.
  • Home underdogs continue their torrid pace. They were 5-2 on the week and now 15-6-1 for the year.
  • Double-digit favorites were only 1-4 ATS.

WEEK THREE RESULTS

John Stovall 2021 Season
  • WEEK THREE WINNER:  Justin Reed.  After a slow start to the season, we saw seven people go 6-0 this week. Justin Reed led the way with 128 points, which moved him from 194th place to 34th place.
  • The group and lock winning percentages were much better:  51.7% and 48.8%, respectively.
  • It’s the third straight week that the lock winning percentage was worse than the overall.
  • For the first time this year, the 6-0’s outnumbered the 0-6s. The totals were 7 and 2, respectively.
  • Last week I mentioned that we should be seeing 40 to 50 people reach 100+ points every week. This week, we had 42.
  • Last week’s leaders cooled off a bit. John Mellish dropped into 2nd place and Cole slipped to 24th.
  • Iven Stevenson took over the top spot in the rankings.
  • Only four people have scored 80+ points in each of the first three weeks: Iven Stevenson, Diane Overbey, Randy Moore and John Forrest.
  • 26 people still have a perfect lock record. Another ten people are 2-0-1.
  • Exactly twice as many people (52) have a perfectly imperfect lock record.
  • Mark H is the highest ranking player with an 0-3 lock record. He is currently in 17th place.
  • A non-power 5 school got some love this week. Future Big 12 member, Cincinnati, was the most popular overall pick and most popular lock. They went from being fortunate to even being in the game, to covering the spread going away.
  • The next three most popular locks (Alabama, Boise State and Oklahoma) all failed to cover the spread.
  • The most popular underdog, BYU, won outright against Arizona State.
  • Georgia was the least popular pick on the board. Only 19 people picked them. All 19 people lost that pick.
  • Louisville was the only team that wasn’t locked. They won a wild game against UCF.
  • For the year, home underdogs are now 10-4-1 ATS the spread.

WEEK TWO RESULTS

John Stovall 2021 Season
  • WEEK ONE WINNER:  Trevor Bowman.  Both Trevor John Mellish went 6-0, but Trevor’s 128 points were enough to take the week. Winning money is nothing new to Trevor. In 2016, he finished 5th overall and won Week 13.
  • The group and lock winning percentages were not great, Bob:  44.5% and 41.1%, respectively. The overall winning percentage was just barely better than Week 1, and the lock record was actually worse. Usually the public does slightly better than average for the first couple weeks, as Vegas settles into setting lines. Not this year.
  • We only had two people go 6-0, but 10 people went 0-6. Thru two weeks, 0-6 is outpacing 6-0 by a margin of 16-2!
  • Only 14 people scored 100+ points. On average, we should be seeing 40 to 50 people reach that milestone each week.
  • John Mellish is off to a great start, 11-1.
  • Cole Grinnell is currently in 2nd place. He won the whole thing in 2017.
  • 10 of the 15 games had results that earned bonus points.
  • We had our first maximum bonus point game of the year with Stanford beating USC 42-28, despite being a 17 point underdog.
  • Stanford was the only team that nobody locked.
  • Double-digit home favorites were 1-4 ATS.
  • Favorites were only 5-10 against the spread.
  • Only 22% of the locks went for the underdog.
  • The most popular game of the week (Iowa vs Iowa State) almost had identical pick distribution. It was picked 129 to 127, in favor of Iowa State. The locks favored Iowa 21-20. Iowa ended up winning the game outright.
  • The most popular pick of the week was Texas. They got hammered by Arkansas.
  • Oklahoma State was the 2nd most popular pick. They won the game, but failed to cover.
  • The least popular pick of the week was California (22 picks). They covered the spread but lost to TCU.
  • 58 people are 2-0 on their locks.
  • 18 people are 1-0-1 on their locks.
  • 115 people are 0-2 on their locks.

WEEK ONE RESULTS

John Stovall 2021 Season
  • WEEK ONE WINNER:  Scott Makintubee.  Both Scott and Brent Polwort had the week’s best record (5-0-1), but Scott’s 118 points edged out Brent’s 116.
  • The group and lock winning percentages were not great, Bob:  44.3% and 43.8%, respectively. History tells us that this will end up being one of the worst outcomes of the year.
  • We didn’t have a single person go 6-0. It’s the first time that has happened since Week 6 of 2016!
  • Five people went 0-6. I won’t name them here, but you can find them at the bottom of the leaderboard.
  • Six people went 0-5-1.
  • Nine people accomplished the very rare feat of going 0-4-2.
  • We only had 14 people scored 100+ points. I could see that being the lowest total all year.
  • The season got off to a strange start, with the first two games ending in a “push”. Having two games push in a week is very rare. It last occurred in Week 11 of 2018.
  • 55 people picked both of the games that ended in a push.
  • Home underdogs got off to a quick start, going 3-0-1.
  • The group majority didn’t pick an underdog in a single game.
  • The most popular underdog, Louisiana, failed to cover the spread.
  • 81% of the locks were placed on the favored team.
  • Alabama was the most popular pick of the week. They always get off to a hot start. For that matter, they end hot, too. They rewarded their followers with an ATS win.
  • The most lopsided lock was in the Tulane vs OU game. OU was picked 34-1. Tulane easily covered, and almost won outright.